Sensitivity and linearity analysis of ozone in East Asia: The effects of domestic emission and intercontinental transport

Abstract

In this study, ozone (O3) sensitivity and linearity over East Asia (EA) and seven urban areas are examined with an integrated air quality modeling system under two categories of scenarios: (1) The effects of domestic emission are estimated under local emission reduction scenarios, as anthropogenic NOx and volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions are reduced by 20%, 50%, and 100%, respectively and independently; and (2) the influence of intercontinental transport is evaluated under Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) emission reduction scenarios, as anthropogenic NOx emission is reduced by 20% in Europe (EU), North America (NA), and South Asia (SA), respectively. Simulations are conducted for January and July 2001 to examine seasonal variation. Through the domestic O3 sensitivity investigation, we find O3 sensitivity varies dynamically depending on both time and location: North EA is VOC limited in January and NOx limited in July, except for the urban areas Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Seoul, which are VOC limited in both months; south EA is NOx limited in both January and July, except for the urban areas Taipei, which is VOC-limited in both months, and Pearl River Delta, which is VOC limited in January. Surface O3 change is found to be affected more by NOx than by VOC over EA in both January and July. We also find different O3 linearity characteristics among urban areas in EA: O3 at Beijing, Tokyo, and Seoul shows a strong negative linear response to NOx emission in January; O3 at Shanghai, Pearl River Delta, and Taipei shows a strong positive response to VOC emission in both January and July. Through the long-range transport investigation, monthly O3 changes over EA resulting from different source regions indicate the largest source contribution comes from NA (0.23 ppb), followed by SA (0.11 ppb) and EU (0.10 ppb). All of the three regions show higher impacts in January than in July. Implications: This study examine O3 sensitivities and linear response of NOx and VOC emission over EA and seven urban areas based on regional air quality modeling system MM5/CMAQ. We also quantify the intercontinental transport effect from EU, SA, and NA over EA. The result provide a theoretical basis for emission control strategy design in EA, and also reveal the O3 special nonlinearity features for further related studies that are applicable to other continents. The HTAP multimodel experiments need to examine the potential impacts on ground-level O3 of changes in meteorology and transport patterns expected as a result of the regional scale.