Sensitivity analysis of monthly reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran: a qualitative approach

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The main objective of this study was to analyze the sensitivity of the monthly reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) trends to key climatic factors (minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmax and Tmin), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours (tsun), and wind speed (U2)) in Iran by applying a qualitative detrended method, rather than the historical mathematical approach. Meteorological data for the period of 1963–2007 from five synoptic stations with different climatic characteristics, including Mashhad (mountains), Tabriz (mountains), Tehran (semi-desert), Anzali (coastal wet), and Shiraz (semi-mountains) were used to address this objective. The Mann–Kendall test was employed to assess the trends of ETo and the climatic variables. The results indicated a significant increasing trend of the monthly ETo for Mashhad and Tabriz for most part of the year while the opposite conclusion was drawn for Tehran, Anzali, and Shiraz. Based on the detrended method, RH and U2 were the two main variables enhancing the negative ETo trends in Tehran and Anzali stations whereas U2 and temperature were responsible for this observation in Shiraz. On the other hand, the main meteorological variables affecting the significant positive trend of ETo were RH and tsun in Tabriz and Tmin, RH, and U2 in Mashhad. Although a relative agreement was observed in terms of identifying one of the first two key climatic variables affecting the ETo trend, the qualitative and the quantitative sensitivity analysis solutions did never coincide. Further research is needed to evaluate this interesting finding for other geographic locations, and also to search for the major causes of this discrepancy.