Sensitivity analysis of fifth generation district heating and cooling coupled with borehole thermal energy storage with respect to cooling adoption

Abstract

Fifth generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) is a promising solution for decarbonising building thermal demands, as it allows for simultaneous heating and cooling through a bi-directional network. This paper aims to investigate the general performance of 5GDHC under uncertainty. Initially, an uncertainty analysis is performed on a 5GDHC model in a case study, revealing significant variation in economic, technical, and environmental performance due to uncertain parameters. Subsequently, variance-based global sensitivity analysis is used to rank the uncertain parameters based on their impact on the economic performance of 5GDHC. The results identify cooling adoption rate, borehole pricing, and discount rate as the most influential parameters. Lastly, factors mapping demonstrates that cooling adoption rate within 0.6-0.9, low borehole costs, low discount rates, and high gas prices will drive the switch to 5GDHC. Overall, this study emphasizes the general applicability of 5GDHC.