Sensitivity analysis of factors affecting gravity dam anti-sliding stability along a foundation surface using Sobol method

Abstract

The anti-sliding stability of a gravity dam along its foundation surface is a key problem in the design of gravity dams. In this study, a sensitivity analysis framework was proposed for investigating the factors affecting gravity dam anti-sliding stability along the foundation surface. According to the design specifications, the loads and factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam were comprehensively selected. Afterwards, the sensitivity of the factors was preliminarily analyzed using the Sobol method with Latin hypercube sampling. Then, the results of the sensitivity analysis were verified with those obtained using the Garson method. Finally, the effects of different sampling methods, probability distribution types of factor samples, and ranges of factor values on the analysis results were evaluated. A case study of a typical gravity dam in Yunnan Province of China showed that the dominant factors affecting the gravity dam anti-sliding stability were the anti-shear cohesion, upstream and downstream water levels, anti-shear friction coefficient, uplift pressure reduction coefficient, concrete density, and silt height. Choice of sampling methods showed no significant effect, but the probability distribution type and the range of factor values greatly affected the analysis results. Therefore, these two elements should be sufficiently considered to improve the reliability of the dam anti-sliding stability analysis.