Abstract
Looking at future data obtained from global climate models, it is expected that future extreme rainfall will increase in many parts of the world. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation provides a physical basis for understanding the sensitivity of rainfall in response to warming, but the relationship between rainfall and temperature is still uncertain. The purpose of this study is to analyze the sensitivity of extreme daily rainfall depth during the summer season (June–September) to climate change in Korea. The relationship between the observed extreme daily rainfall depth and the surface air temperature (SAT) and dew-point temperature (DPT), which were observed in the 60 sites of the Korea Meteorological Administration, were analyzed. The same analysis was also performed using future data provided in various climate models. In addition, the future trends of extreme rainfall, SAT, and DPT were analyzed using future data obtained from climate models, and the effects of increasing SAT and DPT on future extreme rainfall changes were investigated. Finally, it has been confirmed that using changes in SAT and DPT to look at changes in future extreme rainfall can give more consistent future projection results than using future rainfall data directly.
Highlights
As the rapid global warming has been taking place in recent years, the effects of climate change have become evident in Korea but globally [1,2], and the pace of change is increasing [3].Local extreme storm events are frequent and the occurrence frequency and intensity of super typhoons are increasing [4,5,6]
The importance of predicting and analyzing future extreme rainfall is increasing, but the future rainfall data obtained from climate models includes many uncertainties
surface air temperature (SAT) and dew-point temperature (DPT) relatively consistently, it is believed that future reliable projection results can be obtained
Summary
Local extreme storm events are frequent and the occurrence frequency and intensity of super typhoons are increasing [4,5,6]. Bates et al [7] reported that climate change can significantly change the occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) using IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR5 climate change scenarios are predicted to generate more extreme rainfall more frequently [8]. Extreme rainfall caused by climate change has become a global concern, and the importance of predicting and analyzing future extreme rainfall is increasing [11,12]. An analysis of the impacts of future climate change and a reasonable projection on extreme rainfall events are very important to minimize damage from extreme climates [16].
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