Abstract
A process-based niche model of L. camara L. (lantana), a highly invasive shrub species, was developed to estimate its potential distribution using CLIMEX. Model development was carried out using its native and invasive distribution and validation was carried out with the extensive Australian distribution. A good fit was observed, with 86.7% of herbarium specimens collected in Australia occurring within the suitable and highly suitable categories. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the model parameters that had the most influence on lantana distribution. The changes in suitability were assessed by mapping the regions where the distribution changed with each parameter alteration. This allowed an assessment of where, within Australia, the modification of each parameter was having the most impact, particularly in terms of the suitable and highly suitable locations. The sensitivity of various parameters was also evaluated by calculating the changes in area within the suitable and highly suitable categories. The limiting low temperature (DV0), limiting high temperature (DV3) and limiting low soil moisture (SM0) showed highest sensitivity to change. The other model parameters were relatively insensitive to change. Highly sensitive parameters require extensive research and data collection to be fitted accurately in species distribution models. The results from this study can inform more cost effective development of species distribution models for lantana. Such models form an integral part of the management of invasive species and the results can be used to streamline data collection requirements for potential distribution modelling.
Highlights
Bioclimatic models, species distribution models (SDMs) or ecological niche models (ENMs) are valuable tools that can be used in a variety of applications [1,2,3,4]
Large areas of South and Central America, the southern states of USA, Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Madagascar and the high volcanic Pacific island groups such as Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa and New Caledonia, among others, had highly suitable climate for the species. These suitable areas were characterised by ecoclimatic index (EI) values of 20 and above. Warm temperate areas such as northern New Zealand and southern Mediterranean Europe including Portugal, Italy and Greece were projected as having marginal climatic conditions with EI values between 1 and 10
This study shed some light on the precise relationship between climate and the distribution of lantana in Australia
Summary
Bioclimatic models, species distribution models (SDMs) or ecological niche models (ENMs) are valuable tools that can be used in a variety of applications [1,2,3,4]. The environmental envelope of a species is characterised in terms of upper and lower tolerances and the model is used to produce a habitat map that describes the environmental suitability of each location for the species [8] This approach has underpinned the development of a range of computer-based systems [2,10], such as CLIMEX [11] which are designed to model species’ current or their future distributions [1]. In invasive species distribution modelling, the environmental conditions of sites of known occurrence within the species’ native distribution are employed to make projections to other regions to identify potentially suitable areas that can be colonized by nonnative populations of the species [5]. Such models provide a useful tool for identifying areas where invasive species could establish and persist and are effective for assessing the magnitude of the threat posed
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