Abstract
Using CLIMEX and the Taguchi Method, a process-based niche model was developed to estimate potential distributions of Phoenix dactylifera L. (date palm), an economically important crop in many counties. Development of the model was based on both its native and invasive distribution and validation was carried out in terms of its extensive distribution in Iran. To identify model parameters having greatest influence on distribution of date palm, a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Changes in suitability were established by mapping of regions where the estimated distribution changed with parameter alterations. This facilitated the assessment of certain areas in Iran where parameter modifications impacted the most, particularly in relation to suitable and highly suitable locations. Parameter sensitivities were also evaluated by the calculation of area changes within the suitable and highly suitable categories. The low temperature limit (DV2), high temperature limit (DV3), upper optimal temperature (SM2) and high soil moisture limit (SM3) had the greatest impact on sensitivity, while other parameters showed relatively less sensitivity or were insensitive to change. For an accurate fit in species distribution models, highly sensitive parameters require more extensive research and data collection methods. Results of this study demonstrate a more cost effective method for developing date palm distribution models, an integral element in species management, and may prove useful for streamlining requirements for data collection in potential distribution modeling for other species as well.
Highlights
Species distribution models, ecological niche models (SDMs and ENMs) [1,2,3] and general bioclimatic models such BIOCLIM [4], are acknowledged as essential tools in predicting a variety of future scenarios
The potential distribution of P. dactylifera L. baseline model was highly sensitive to change in DV2 and DV3
This study delineates the relationship in Iran between climate and P. dactylifera L. distribution
Summary
Ecological niche models (SDMs and ENMs) [1,2,3] and general bioclimatic models such BIOCLIM [4], are acknowledged as essential tools in predicting a variety of future scenarios. The environmental envelope approach has been the basis for the development of CLIMEX [8] and a number of other models [9], designed to model current or future distribution of a species [10], using data based on the environmental factors inherent within the natural distribution area of the species, to project levels of suitability for other previously uncolonized regions [11] This modeling is valuable for the identification of potential localities where the species could be successfully introduced and survive, as well as for estimating the impact of a potential threat
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