Sensitivity analyses in snow avalanche dynamics modeling and implications when modeling extreme events

Abstract

We present the first snow avalanche dynamics model simulations to start in the middle of the avalanche path at the maximum expected speed for an extreme event. We first present a sensitivity analysis of the dynamics model to the various model inputs. A single-parameter Coulomb-type friction formulation is used in the model. This formulation is supported by various experiments and full-scale observations of avalanche flow that demonstrate a coupling between the shear and normal forces in flowing snow. The dynamics model is shown to be most sensitive to changes in the friction coefficient. We suggest that the precision in the friction coefficient necessary to confidently use a dynamics model to predict runout distances is higher than the current state of knowledge about avalanche resistance mechanisms. This result leads to the new modeling technique that starts numerical simulations at the midpoint of the length of the avalanche path at maximum speed. The Coulomb friction coefficient is chosen to produce a unique speed profile from this new starting point at maximum speed to a state of rest at an empirically pre-determined runout position. The technique reproduces the observed sharp deceleration of avalanche flow in the runout zone.