Self-Organization at the Break in the Trajectory of Socioeconomic Development: Challenges for Russia

Abstract

In the development of the world economy, global integration and disintegration cycles alternate. Growth of the world economy can be considered as a regime with aggravation in analogy with population growth in the theory of S.P. Kapitsa. Accordingly, this growth is subject to internal laws, not external restrictions. Kapitsa formulated this position as the principle of the demographic imperative. A slowdown in both population growth and economic growth in the coming years is inevitable. Both a pessimistic scenario in the spirit of “limits to growth” and a transition from extensive to intensive development in the spirit of the ideas of disgraced Soviet philosopher M.K. Petrov are possible. Today, first, we can observe a rapid intensification in production processes both in industry and agriculture, as well as in the sphere of intangible production. Second, intangible consumption is increasingly replacing material. The third prerequisite for maintaining the progressive development of society in the face of a significant slowdown in GDP growth is a turning point in the trend toward the degradation of educational and intellectual levels.