Самоорганизация на переломе траектории социально-экономического развития: вызовы для России

Abstract

The global integration and disintegration cycles alternate in the development of the world economy. The growth of the world economy can be seen as the “up-regime” in the nonlinear dynamics by the analogy with population growth in the theory of S.P. Kapitsa. Accordingly, this growth is the subject to the internal laws, and not external constraints. S.P. Kapitsa has formulated this concept as a principle of demographic imper ative. The slowdown both in population growth and in economic growth in the coming years is inevitable. Two scenarios are possible: (1) the worst-case in the spirit of “limits to growth” and (2) the transition from extensive development to intensive, in the spirit of a disgraced Soviet philosopher M. Petrov. The change in the trend to the degradation of the educational and intellectual level is a necessary condition for the preservation of the progressive development of society in the conditions of a significant slowdown in the GDP.