Abstract
Frequency analysis of extreme events is used to estimate the maximum rainfall associated with different return periods and is used in planning hydraulic structures. When carrying out this type of analysis in engineering projects, the hydrological distributions that best fit the trend of maximum 24 h rainfall data are unknown. This study collected maximum 24 h rainfall records from 362 stations distributed throughout Colombia, with the goal of guiding hydraulic planners by suggesting the probability distributions they should use before beginning their analysis. The generalized extreme value (GEV) probability distribution, using the weighted moments method, presented the best fits of frequency analysis of maximum daily precipitation for various return periods for selected rainfall stations in Colombia.
Highlights
Frequency analyses of extreme events are used to estimate maximum rainfall associated with different return periods [1,2,3], and their results are used to plan stormwater network projects, longitudinal dikes, overflows, drainage channels, cofferdams, gutters, circular and box culverts and bridges, among other infrastructure works [4,5]; they can be used to carry out erosion analysis in hydrographic basins [6]
During the compilation of the maximum h rainfall records in Colombia, the following aspects were taken into account for each station: a minimum recording period of 30 years, eliminating outliers, using the entire available recording period and ensuring that the stations were distributed throughout each of the five regions that make up Colombia (Caribbean, Pacific, Andean, Orinoquía and Amazonas)
The methods of estimation of parameters were used for the following hydrological distributions: the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, the maximum likelihood (ML) and weighted moments (WM); the Gumbel distribution, the ML and WM; the Pearson Type
Summary
Frequency analyses of extreme events are used to estimate maximum rainfall associated with different return periods [1,2,3], and their results are used to plan stormwater network projects, longitudinal dikes, overflows, drainage channels, cofferdams, gutters, circular and box culverts and bridges, among other infrastructure works [4,5]; they can be used to carry out erosion analysis in hydrographic basins [6]. In frequency analysis of extreme precipitation events, the hydrological probability distribution that best represents the trend of maximum 24 h rainfall data can be determined using functions such as the generalized extreme value (GEV) [15], Gumbel [1,3,13], log-Pearson type III [1,16], normal [3] and Pearson type III [17]. The WM method is simpler than the ML method; it provides a good accuracy in the estimation parameters In this sense, Mahdi & Cenac [22] showed that the Gumbel probability distribution was fitted adequately using the WM method than the ML method. The most representative probability distributions in each region of Colombia were selected and analyzed using the Gumbel, log-Pearson type II, Pearson, normal and GEV distributions and the chi-squared goodness of fit test. This study can be used by designers and engineers to determine a priori the hydrological distribution that should be used in a particular project
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