Relationship of Rainfall and Flood Return Periods through Hydrologic and Hydraulic Modeling

Abstract

In order to examine the relationship between rainfall return periods and flood return periods, the design storm approach is compared to the rainfall–runoff continuous simulation and flood frequency analysis approach. The former was based on rainfall frequency analysis and event-based hydrological simulations, while the latter was based on continuous hydrological simulations and flood frequency analysis. All hydrological simulations were undertaken employing the HEC-HMS software. For the rainfall frequency analysis, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution was used. For the flood frequency analysis, both the Extreme Value Type I (Gumbel) and GEV theoretical distributions were used and compared to each other. Flood hazard (inundation depth, flow velocities and flood extent) was estimated based on hydrodynamic simulations employing the HEC-RAS software. The study area was the Pineios catchment, upstream of Larissa city, Greece. The results revealed that the assumption of equivalent return periods of rainfall and discharge is not valid for the study area. For instance, a 50-year return period flood corresponds to a rainfall return period of about 110 years. Even if flow measurements are not available, continuous simulation based on re-analysis datasets and flood frequency analysis may be alternatively used.