Abstract
Summary Objectives The relative age effect (RAE) has been documented to be present in the selection of national youth soccer players. Even so, few studies have documented the long-term effect on talent development. The aim of this study is to examine RAE among one cohort of Norwegian national youth soccer players. A second objective was to investigate the selection process. Equipment and methods Participants were 92 male players born in 1991 selected for one or more U15-U19 national team match in 2006–2010. The results are presented with basic descriptive statistics such as frequency counts and percentages. Chi 2 tests were performed to compare differences between the observed and expected birth rate distribution across the four quarters of the Norwegian soccer year. The significance level of .05 was selected to determine statistical significance. Results The results showed that over 46% of the players were born in the first quartile. Furthermore, highlighting a large degree of replacement of players, where approximately 62% was selected for 1 or 2 years in the period, and only 22% of the selected players in 2010 had been selected earlier years. Potential explanations of this replacement will be discussed. This study supports the conclusion that RAE is a major factor in the selection of youth national team soccer players. However, it questions both the motivation hypothesis and the self-fulfilling prophecy hypothesis, associated with selection to a youth national team. Because of the high degree of exchange of players in the period, the advantages of early selection could be smaller than earlier expected in a talent development perspective.
Published Version
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