Seismological evidence for long-term and rapidly accelerating magma pressurization preceding the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

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Successful eruption forecasts are heavily dependent on the recognition of well-established patterns in volcano monitoring data. Therefore, it is critical to develop, in retrospect, an understanding of the physical basis for cases of abnormal precursory behavior, as the basis for (a) a complete understanding of the range of precursory signals that may be expected at a particular volcano and (b) development of new monitoring approaches to detect more subtle signals of the underlying processes responsible for common patterns of seismic unrest. Here, using a hybrid analysis of shear-wave splitting (SWS) and double-couple fault-plane solutions (FPS), we document the timing and nature of local stress field changes in the months to days preceding the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, which was characterized by an abnormally long period of precursory low-frequency seismicity reflected in multiple escalations of alert levels prior to the eruption. We find that an approximately ~90° change in the polarization of fast S-wavelets (Φ) accompanied the earliest signs of seismic unrest in 2008 and continued through the eruption before diminishing in 2009. A similar change in the orientation of VT FPS occurred 18–48h prior to the eruption onset on March 23, 2009, but almost two months after a strong increase in the rate of shallow VT earthquakes. Combined, our SWS and FPS results show the earliest-, and latest-known changes in seismic monitoring data, respectively, and are suggestive of a protracted period of slow magma ascent followed by a short period of rapidly increasing magma pressurization beneath the volcano. These results demonstrate the power of a combined stress-field analysis for clarifying the processes driving ambiguous seismic unrest at active volcanoes.