Seismicity patterns in the Himalayan plate boundary and identification of the areas of high seismic potential

Abstract

Space-time distribution of earthquakes along the Himalayan plate boundary has been investigated with a view to discerning fluctuations in seismicity rates associated with great earthquakes, the possibilities of epicentre migration and gaps in seismic activity. Data from 1800 to 1976 were considered. This study shows that all great earthquakes ( M ⩾ 8.0) were preceded by seismically quiescent periods of at least 19 years. Furthermore, earthquake quiescence has also been recognised to follow the great earthquakes. Three possible trends of migration of epicentres of great earthquakes have been recognised: 1. (1) The first trend starts from the 1905 Kangra earthquake, the epicentres of subsequent earthquakes migrating eastwards along the plate boundary. 2. (2) The second trend of migration starts from the great Nepal earthquake of 1833 associated with eastward migration. 3. (3) The third trend commences from the great Assam earthquake of 1897 and shows a westward migration of earthquake epicentres. The middle section of the Himalayan convergent plate boundary (80°E to 90°E), in general, displays a relatively low level of seismicity as compared to the adjacent sections. A remarkable decrease in seismicity following the year 1970 has been observed along a section of the Himalaya which lies to the east of the rupture zone of the great 1905 Kangra earthquake. Since 1970 the seismicity rate has also dropped in the region lying in between the rupture zones of the great Assam earthquakes of 1897 and 1950, as has earlier been reported by Khattri and Wyss (1978). Such decreases in the level of seismicity along active plate boundaries have been demonstrated to be indicative of building up of stresses leading to future great earthquakes (Mogi, 1969; McCann et al., 1979).