Abstract
An area of significant seismic quiescence is found near Oaxaca, southern Mexico. The anomalous area may be the site of a future large earthquake as many cases so far reported were. This conjecture is justified by study of past seismicity changes in the Oaxaca region. An interval of reduced seismicity, followed by a renewal of activity, preceded both the recent large events of 1965 and 1968. Those past earthquakes have ruptured the eastern and western portions of the present seismicity gap, respectively, so that the central part remaining is considered to be of the highest risk of the pending earthquake. The most probable estimates are: 71/2 ± ¼ for the magnitude and φ = 16.5° ± 0.5°N, λ = 96.5° ± 0.5W for the epicenter location. A firm prediction of the occurrence time is not attempted. However, a resumption of seismic activity in the Oaxaca region may precede a main shock.
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