Abstract
Accroding to historical recording of large earthquakes in the past 500 years,there are two seismic gaps in the middle and eastern segment of Himalayan earthquake belt. In the area around eastern Himalaya belt( East Tibet and surroundings),1950 Motuo M 8. 6 great earthquake occurred there,then it was being M 6seismic quiescence last from 1971 to 2004 and the seismic gap was broken by M 6. 1 occurred in 2005,at present the large earthquake risk should be paid attention to. After compared the current seismicities with that before the 1950 event in this area,we found similarity in spatial and temporal seismicity evolution characteristics. We confer that,M 4-5 earthquakes bar is forming in the East Tibet and surroundings,it will occur moderate to strong erathquakes in succession in the pre-existing M 6 seismic gap,there is large to great earthquake risk in the near future years.
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