Seismic Risk Probability Assessment of Frame Structures Based on Incremental Dynamic Analysis

Abstract

To assess the seismic risk probability of frameworks in different seismic fortification intensity zones in China, three fortification intensity framework models-specifically, 6 (0.05 g), 7 (0.1 g), and 8 (0.2 g)-were established as the research objects. The incremental dynamic analysis method was used to conduct a structure seismic fragility assessment, in which the fragility curves as well as the damage probabilities under certain peak ground accelerations were obtained. The risk probabilities of all the seismic damage levels of the frameworks in the next 50 years were calculated using the Monte Carlo method based on a study of the seismic hazard of different fortification intensity zones. The results indicate that, in the next 50 years, the risk probabilities of fortification intensity framework models 6, 7, and 8 exceeding “serious damage” were 1.92, 4.25, and 8.28%, respectively. Additionally, the risk probabilities of the models having a damage degree of “collapse” were 0.14, 0.43, and 1.07%, respectively. Based on the risk probability of the structure, the risk level is classified. This study forms the basis for the comprehensive evaluation of building seismic damage risk and can be used as a reference for the development of building seismic disaster prevention countermeasures.