Seismic Risk Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis in Terms of Life-Cycle Repair Cost

Abstract

A probabilistic framework is discussed in this paper for assessment and sensitivity analysis of seismic risk, characterized as the life-cycle repair cost. A comprehensive methodology is initially discussed for earthquake loss estimation that uses the nonlinear time-history response of the structure to estimate the damage in a detailed, component level. A realistic, stochastic ground motion model is then adopted for describing the acceleration time history for future seismic excitations. In this setting, the life-cycle repair cost can be quantified by its expected value over the space of the uncertain parameters for the structural and excitation models. Estimation of this cost through stochastic simulation is suggested and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis approach is also presented, aiming to identify the structural and excitation properties that probabilistically contribute more to this cost.