Seismic probabilistic risk assessment and its impact on margin studies

Abstract

In recent years a number of seismic probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants have been conducted. These studies have highlighted the significance of seismic events to the overall plant risk and have identified several dominant contributors to the seismic risk. It has been learnt from the seismic PRAs that the uncertainty in the seismic hazard results contribute to the large uncertainty in the core damage and severe release frequencies. A procedure is needed to assess the seismic safety of a plant which is somewhat removed from the influence of the uncertainties in seismic hazard estimates. In the last two years, seismic margin review methodologies have been developed based on the results and insights from the seismic probabilistic risk assessments. They focus on the question of how much larger an earthquake should be beyond the plant design basis before it compromises the safety of the plant. An indicator of the plant seismic capacity called the High Confidence Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF) capacity, is defined as the level of earthquake for which one could state with high confidence that the plant will have a low probability of severe core damage. The seismic margin review methodologies draw from the seismic PRAs, experience in seismic analyses, testing and actual earthquakes in order to minimize the review effort. The salient steps in the review consists of preliminary screening of components and systems, performance of detailed seismic walkdowns and evaluation of seismic margins for components, systems and plant.