Seismic hazard prediction of the Hunhe Fault in the Shen-Fu New District

Abstract

Earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation are crucial aspects of social welfare that significantly impact national public security. This paper presents a seismic risk assessment and hazard prediction of the Hunhe Fault in the Shengyang-Fushun (Shen-Fu) New District. The target area is at risk of seismic damage due to two major branch ruptures, namely, F9 and F1; these ruptures have the potential to generate maximum earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.0 in the next 50 to 100 years. A three-dimensional underground velocity structure and asperity source model were established for the target faults. Subsequently, a hybrid technique combining deterministic and empirical approaches was employed to simulate the broadband strong ground motion of the target region in anticipation of the occurrence of expected scenario earthquakes. The distributions of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and peak ground displacement (PGD) for the area are provided, and the results indicate that densely populated urban areas could experience PGA values close to 280 cm/s2 along the fault traces. This study provides a reliable basis for engineering construction and urban planning in the Shen-Fu New District.