Seismic fragility functions for slope stability analysis with multiple vulnerability states

Abstract

The seismic performance and stability analysis of slopes are important in predicating damage and mitigating potential losses in landslide-prone areas. Fragility functions can give results of slope performance assessment that are more comprehensive and richer. This study presents a procedure of constructing seismic fragility functions for slope stability analysis with various vulnerability states based on incremental dynamic analysis (IDA). IDA is a performance-based earthquake engineering analysis based on a series of dynamic time history analyses conducted for suitable multiple-scaled seismic records. IDA not only estimates the seismic demand and capacity of systems but also provides basic data for the estimation of fragility functions. Firstly, an ensemble of seismic records meeting the requirements of specific site conditions of a slope is selected to consider the randomness of ground motion. A series of seismic stability analyses of the slope are performed to obtain the dynamic safety factor time history of the slope. Each minimum safety factor and corresponding seismic intensity measure is then extracted to develop a set of IDA curves. On the basis of IDA results, analytical seismic fragility functions of a slope are developed considering the prescribed various vulnerability states of the slope in terms of the safety factor. The failure probabilities of exceeding different specific vulnerability states for a given intensity measure of the earthquake are finally obtained.