Seismic fragility analysis of slopes based on large-scale shaking table model tests

Abstract

Seismic fragility analysis is one probabilistic method that represents the conditional probabilities of exceeding different predetermined damage states for various given earthquake hazard levels, which is the essential part of probabilistic seismic risk assessment. It has gained much popularity recently because much more comprehensive and richer results than traditional probabilistic methods can be provided. The classical seismic fragility analysis of slopes is always performed through analytical approaches. In the present study, a novel seismic fragility analysis framework combined with shaking table model test results is proposed for probabilistic seismic performance and risk assessment of slopes. The shaking table model tests of a rock slope reinforced by pile-anchor structures were firstly performed subjected to a suite of real earthquake records with different intensity levels. Subsequently, the seismic responses from shaking table model tests were then gathered for the optimal analysis to determine the optimal engineering demand parameter (EDP) and earthquake intensity measure (IM) for seismic fragility analysis of slopes. At last, the identified most appropriate IM and EDP were selected to construct the scalar-valued fragility curves, vector-valued fragility surfaces and fragility surfaces considering acceleration elevation amplification effect by the proposed framework. The results indicate that using single IM to construct scalar-valued fragility functions may result in different failure probabilities depending on the chosen earthquake IM. The vector-valued fragility surfaces provide more information than ordinary fragility curves, and lead to more proper and realistic evaluations of seismic hazard of slopes. The methods and results presented in this paper also provide the basis for the probabilistic seismic risk and loss assessment of earthquake-induced slope geological disaster.