Abstract
Equivalent number of cycles (Ncyc) is a significant factor in assessing liquefaction potential during earthquakes. However, the effects of Ncyc are considered a deterministic value by using a magnitude scaling factor, and the uncertainties of these effects have not been included in the current design practice. This paper calculates Ncyc within the soil mass by deconvolution analysis as a function of the period of soil layer from the ground surface (Ts) and the soil property (b) using a wide range of acceleration time histories. The predictive model of Ncyc is developed as variable dependent on earthquake magnitude, peak ground acceleration (PGA), and ratio of spectral acceleration, Ts and b. Then, the Ncyc model is combined with the ground-motion prediction equation of PGA and the prediction equation of seismic shear-stress reduction coefficient (rd) to obtain the prediction equation of the seismic demand of the liquefaction potential (K1cyc). The standard deviation of K1cyc is also modeled on the basis of the aleatory variability of PGA, rd, and Ncyc with correlations between these residuals. This predictive model of K1cyc is implemented in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to show the impact of these uncertainties on design practice.
Published Version
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