Abstract
In the current paper we investigate the relation between secular cycles and millennial trends. The tests we have performed suggest that the structure of millennial trends cannot be adequately understood without secular cycles being taken into consideration. At a certain level of analysis millennial trends turn out to be a virtual byproduct of the demographic cycle mechanisms, which turn out to incorporate certain trend-creating mechanisms. Demographic-political cycle models can serve as a basis for the development and testing of models accounting not only for cycles but also for secular trends. In order to do this, we suggest to alter the basic assumptions of the earlier generations of demographic cycle models (that both the carrying capacity of land and the polity size are constant). The variables such as carrying capacity of land, cultural complexity, and empire sizes are actually not constant, but rather experience long-term trend dynamics in the rise, and the new generation of models needs to account for this fact.
Highlights
We believe that one of the most important recent findings in the study of longterm dynamic social processes was the discovery of the sociodemographic cycles as a basic feature of complex agrarian systems' dynamics
During the final pre-collapse phases overpopulation leads to further decrease of per capita production, surplus production further decreases, and state revenues shrink, whereas the state needs more and more resources to control the growing, though at lower and lower rates, population. This leads to state breakdown and demographic collapse, after which a new demographic cycle begins—until the escape from the Malthusian Trap that was started by the advanced economies in Europe and North America in the early 19th century, and that was followed by the overwhelming majority of the social systems afterwards—with a partial exception of Tropical Africa
– low in comparison with other phases of respective cycle 2 – intermediate in comparison with other phases of respective cycle 3 – high in comparison with other phases of respective cycle. The importance of these findings is to suggest that the structure of millennial trends cannot be adequately understood without secular cycles being taken into consideration
Summary
We believe that one of the most important recent findings in the study of longterm dynamic social processes was the discovery of the sociodemographic cycles as a basic feature of complex agrarian systems' dynamics (see especially Nefedov 2003 and Turchin, Nefedov 2009 for an overview of the sociodemographic cycle theory). During the final pre-collapse phases overpopulation leads to further decrease of per capita production, surplus production further decreases, and state revenues shrink, whereas the state needs more and more resources to control the growing, though at lower and lower rates, population This leads to state breakdown and demographic collapse, after which a new demographic cycle begins—until the escape from the Malthusian Trap that was started by the advanced economies in Europe and North America in the early 19th century, and that was followed by the overwhelming majority of the social systems afterwards—with a partial exception of Tropical Africa (see, e.g., Kögel, Prskawetz 2001; Zinkina, Korotayev 2014a; Korotayev, Zinkina 2015; Grinin, Korotayev 2015; Korotayev et al 2016). What is more, during this phase state territory is likely to start contracting (note that a similar set of hypotheses has been produced by Turchin using a somewhat different logic [Turchin 2008])
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary 
Published Version (
Free)
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call