Sectores costeros más vulnerables entre Lurín y Pucusana ante un posible aumento del nivel del mar como consecuencia del cambio climático: Adaptación y aplicación del índice de vulnerabilidad costera de Gornitz

Abstract

This article identifies the most vulnerable locations in the beaches south of the city of Lima, between Lurin and Pucusana, caused by a potential increase in sea level as a result of climate change. The research was based on the adaptation and application of the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) of Gornitz et al. (1991). Originally, CVI index focuses on physical variables. However, human variables were also included because the study zone is a densely populated area with constant growth in commerce, services, industries and urban constructions projects. The coastal zone south of Lima hasn’t been studied thoroughly before, so to address it systematically, six variables were identified. The following three physical variables were considered: slope, geomorphology and coastal line variation; as well as the following three socioeconomic ones: distance to infrastructure, land use and population density. The integration of the six variables in the IVC allowed the study to categorize four different degrees of vulnerability of the coastal sector (very high, high, moderate, low, and very low). The results of this investigation showed that, from the thirteen spatial units of analysis evaluated, those with very high vulnerability were: Senoritas, Embajadores and Pucusana and those with very low vulnerability were Lurin, Quebrada and the Roca sector. The application of these two types of variables showed that the socioeconomic factors contribute to the increase of vulnerability of the coastal zone while the physical variables contributes to the decrease of it.