Sector-level estimates for global future copper demand and the potential for resource efficiency

Abstract

We evaluate the effectiveness of resource efficiency strategies for copper by quantifying the effect of technological and behavioral changes on primary copper demand. We assess multi-product sector-level estimates based on service needs under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 with Representative Concentration 2.6 W/m2 (SSP2-RCP2.6) in a baseline and eight different resource efficiency strategies. Our results show that final global copper demand will increase under the SSP2-RCP2.6 scenario from 24.3 Mt in 2015 to 44.4 Mt in 2050. Copper demand for vehicles and transportation infrastructure will quadruple. Improved scrap sorting and higher collection rates can decrease primary copper production (from copper ore) in 2050 by 2.3 and 2.2 Mt, respectively. The largest copper losses occur through hibernating stocks in the appliances sector. With ambitious material efficiency and demand-side sufficiency, it is possible to return to the primary copper production levels of 2020, despite growing service needs.