Second Use Value of China’s New Energy Vehicle Battery: A View Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation

Lei Zhang,Yingqi Liu,Ari Kokko,Bingxiang Sun,Beibei Pang

doi:10.3390/su12010341

Lei Zhang, Yingqi Liu + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/su12010341

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Abstract

Nowadays, many countries are actively seeking ways to solve the energy crisis and environmental pollution. New Energy Vehicle (NEV) has become an important way to solve these problems. With the rapid development of NEV, its batteries need to be replaced with new batteries after 5–8 years. Therefore, whether the second use of NEV’s battery has commercial or social value becomes a research hotspot. The innovation of this paper is to use the cost-benefit method to determine the value influencing factors of NEV’s battery second use, and use system dynamics to perform scenario simulation analysis. The methods used in this paper are the cost-benefit method and system dynamics method. Firstly, this paper systematically analyzes the cost and benefit factors that affect the second use value of China’s NEV batteries and uses system dynamics to establish the relationship and value model among various factors. Then, this paper compares the value of battery energy storage between old batteries and new batteries. According to the cost-income factor analysis, this paper eventually selects specific factors and uses VENSIM software to carry out the multi-scenario simulation. The results show that NEV’s battery second use has commercial and social value compared to new battery energy storage. Moreover, battery cost, government subsidies, and electricity prices are three important factors that affect the second use value of China’s NEV battery. Changing the government’s cash subsidy methods, such as providing free batteries or combining new energy to reduce on-grid tariffs, will help increase the second use value of the NEV battery. In the future, the second use value of China’s NEV battery industry will be more significant, with the update of the technology, the surge in the number of NEV’s used batteries, and government support.

Highlights

With the rapid development of the economy, the global traditional fossil energy has been overexploited and overused [1]
As the new battery cost is reduced by 10% (Figure 6b), the investment recovery period is shortened by 1 year
We sorted out the cost-benefit indicators and constructed the value analysis framework and System Dynamics (SD) model

Summary

Introduction

With the rapid development of the economy, the global traditional fossil energy has been overexploited and overused [1]. Many countries are gradually paying attention to new energy industries to ensure the comprehensive development of economy-society-ecology, including China [2]. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), by the end of 2018, China’s sales of NEV reached 1,256,000 units, an increase of 61.7% over 2018 (http://www.nea.gov.cn/ 2018-01/24/c_136921015.htm). It estimates that the sales of NEV will reach 2 million by 2020 [3]. China’s NEV’s battery installed capacity is 65 GWh in 2018, an increase of 46% over

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Conclusion