Seasonality on the life cycle of Aedes aegypti mosquito and its statistical relation with dengue outbreaks

Abstract

Aedes aegypti is the most common and important vector that transmits dengue disease. It has been observed that its abundance is one of the main factors influencing dengue incidence and hence the importance of studying its population dynamics. By means of a dynamical model, in this work, we study the effects temperature and precipitation in the abundance of the mosquito Aedes aegypti. We also analyze the correlation between mosquito and dengue outbreaks using historical data of 8 Mexican regions and the role of diapause in seasonality outbreaks. We found that the joint action of different mechanisms can enhance the mosquito abundance, but also inhibit it when they act in an asynchronous way. For the studied regions, the seasonality of the low temperature rather than mean temperature is the main driving force promoting mosquito outbreaks and hence dengue outbreaks. We conclude that this simpler model rather than more complex dengue models can also be used to predict the risk of dengue outbreaks with good accuracy. In addition to this, the model can be used to discover the underlying mechanism of dengue outbreaks in different regions and thus help to apply targeted control measures.