Seasonality matters: simulating the impacts of climate change on winter tourism demand

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change represents a serious challenge for winter tourism. Its economic and managerial impacts will differ between season periods due to the seasonality of snow availability and tourism demand. Therefore, the interaction of these two types of seasonality has to be modelled. With a novel approach including seasonality of demand, timing of marginal snow conditions, individual preferences and skiing frequency, we simulate impacts of altered snow conditions on skiing demand with data from a discrete choice experiment (n = 1312) conducted in Austria. Snow conditions explain 41% of overall importance of ski area attributes. Distinct patterns of seasonal skiing demand exist that differ with respect to individual skiing days and preferences. Identical snow conditions occurring in different season periods cause demand declines that differ by a factor of 20. The presented construction kit allows investigating economic impacts in combination with different climate change scenarios for weather dependent forms of tourism.