Seasonality and severity of respiratory syncytial virus during the COVID-19 pandemic: a dynamic cohort study

Abstract

ObjectivesTo investigate seasonality, epidemiologic characteristics, and clinical severity variations of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated hospitalizations following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in Tuscany, Italy, up to the 2022-2023 season. MethodsFrom 2017 to 2023, a dynamic cohort consisting of all resident children aged ≤2 years was followed up in regional registries. The person-time incidence rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 1,000 person-years and risk of severe hospitalization (intensive care unit, continuous positive airway pressure, or mechanical ventilation) per 100 RSV hospitalizations were calculated. RSV seasonality was investigated with retrospective methods. ResultsA total of 193,244 children were followed up. After the easing of restrictions, RSV epidemics showed earlier seasonality and shorter duration compared with pre-pandemic (2017 to 2019), with this deviation decreased in 2022-2023. In 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, the incidence rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations significantly increased compared with pre-pandemic (2022-2023 risk ratio 3.6, 95% confidence interval 3.3-4.0), with larger increases among older age groups. Among hospitalized children, only those aged ≥12 months showed an increased risk of severe hospitalization, particularly during 2021-2022 (risk ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval 1.5-24.3). ConclusionsOur findings suggest a gradual return of RSV epidemics to the pre-pandemic pattern, although relevant increases in disease incidence persist. Reduced regular RSV exposure among older children may lead to declining immunity and increased severe outcome risks.