[Seasonal variation and driving factors of forest fire in Zhejiang Province, China, based on MODIS satellite hot spots].

Abstract

Understanding the changes and driving factors of forest fire can provide scientific basis for prevention and management of forest fire. In this study, we analyzed the changes and driving factors of forest fire in Zhejiang Province during 2001-2016 based on trend analysis and Logistic regression model with the MODIS satellite fire point data combined with meteorological (daily ave-rage wind speed, daily average temperature, daily relative humidity, daily temperature difference, daily cumulative precipitation), human activities (distance from road, distance from railway, distance from resident, population, per capita GDP), topographic and vegetation factors (elevation, slope, vegetation coverage). The results showed that the number of forest fires in spring and summer had significantly increased, while the forest fires in the autumn and winter increased first and then decreased. Forest fire in autumn significantly declined. The four seasons' fire occurrence prediction models had good prediction accuracy, reaching 75.8% (spring), 79.1% (summer), 74.7% (autumn) and 79.6% (winter). The meteorological, human activity, topographic and vegetation factors significantly affected fire occurrence in spring and summer, while meteorological factors were the main fire drivers in autumn and winter in Zhejiang. The focus of forest fire management should be on human activities. Fire prevention campaign should be done in spring and summer when high-risk forest fires were scattered in the study area. In autumn and winter, observatory and monitoring equipment could be built to facilitate fire management and detect in the area of high fire risk that was concentrated in the southwest region.