Abstract
Seasonal river flow forecasting methods are currently being developed for country-wide application in the United Kingdom, using several different techniques. In this paper, methods based on persistence and historical flow analogues are presented. New 1- and 3-month forecasts are made each month using monthly river flows at 93 stations with records at least 30 years long. The method that performs best is selected for each separate month, catchment and forecast duration. The forecasts based on persistence of the previous month’s flow generally outperform the analogues approach, particularly for slowly responding catchments (mainly in the southeast) with large underground water storage in aquifers. Historical analogues make a useful contribution to the forecasts in the northwest of the country. Correlations between hindcasts and observations that exceed 0.23 and are significant at the 5% level for a one-sided test are found for 81% (70%) of the station–month combinations for the 1-month (3-month) forecast.Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz Associate editor Not assigned
Highlights
Predictions of water availability on a seasonal time scale are useful for managers and planners involved in a range of activities, such as agriculture, water supply and reservoir management
Year-round seasonal flow forecasting methods have only recently become available for the United Kingdom (UK)
One- and three-month river flow forecasts are provided by running a grid-based rainfall–runoff model (Bell et al 2013) with the UK Met Office 1- and 3month ensemble rainfall forecasts as input. These rainfall forecasts are currently only available as a single value for the entire country, and the river flow forecasts are presented as regional averages for 17 geographical regions of Great Britain
Summary
Predictions of water availability on a seasonal time scale are useful for managers and planners involved in a range of activities, such as agriculture, water supply and reservoir management. A range of methods for application year-round and nationwide is currently being developed jointly by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH), the British Geological Survey, the UK Met Office and the UK environment agencies (Hydrological Outlook UK, http://www.hydou tuk.net/) These methods include river flow and groundwater modelling approaches using either seasonal rainfall forecasts or historical rainfall series as input. Akin to the previously developed empirical methods, regression-based models for river flow forecasting using large-scale forcings, such as sea surface temperatures and airflow indices, as predictors are under development This is a longer-term effort because new teleconnection patterns need to be identified for the different regions of the UK, and for all seasons
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
