Seasonal Lifting Condensation Level Trends: Implications of Warming and Reforestation in Appalachia’s Deciduous Forest

Abstract

Lifting condensation level (LCL) has long been used to estimate cloud base heights. However, spatial and temporal patterns of cloud bases embedded within atmospheric currents flowing over mountainous terrain still need to be more adequately described. To advance understanding, hourly observations of barometric pressure and ambient and dew point temperatures from 1948 to 2017 were acquired for seven airports located at 40.21° N (average) and crossing the Allegheny Mountains of the northeastern United States. Daily LCL trends were quantified, and large positive (2.3 m yr−1) and negative (−1.3 m yr−1) LCL trends were found to be greatest near seasonal transition dates (17 April and 9 November 2022). Cool season LCLs (795 m) increased significantly (p < 0.007) at five sites resulting in an average LCL increase of 81 m and implying a deeper and drier sub-cloud layer. Average warm season LCLs (773 m) decreased by 23 m, suggesting a deeper convective cloud layer and less sub-cloud evaporation that may facilitate higher hydrometeor growth and precipitation rates. Collective results indicate divergent seasonally averaged LCLs characterized by more rapid seasonal transitions, warmer and less cloudy cool seasons, and cloudier and more humid warm seasons that may be partly attributable to aggressive reforestation and contribute to more significant rainfall events and higher flood risks.