Abstract
Abstract This paper presents the development of operational statistical forecasts of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) based on 30 yr of data (1965–94). Predictors include monthly values of indices representing (a) the El Nino–Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and (b) the environmental conditions over East Asia and the WNP for the months from April of the previous year to March of the current year. Trends and short-term oscillations of the TC activity are also incorporated. The prediction equations are derived from the predictors of individual parameters using the Projection Pursuit Regression technique, which is a statistical method that reduces high-dimensional data to a lower-dimensional subspace before the regression is performed. This technique is found to provide explanations of certain nonlinear variations of the predictands. The predictions from individual parameters are then tested using the jackknife technique. Those predict...
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