Possible influence of the Antarctic Oscillation on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific

Abstract

The present study investigates how large‐scale atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) modulates tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) during a typhoon season (July, August, and September; boreal summer). The variation of the SH circulation of interest is the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). In the positive phase of AAO relative to its negative phase, two anomalous highs develop over the western Pacific in both hemispheres: a huge anticyclone in southeastern Australia and a relatively weak anticyclone in the East China Sea. These teleconnection patterns are examined and compared with previous analyses. Related to the AAO variations, a statistically significant alteration of TC activities is found over the WNP. The difference in the mean TC passage numbers over the East China Sea (120°–140°E, 20°–40°N) between the eight highest‐AAO years and the eight lowest‐AAO years is as large as 2, equivalent to a 50–100% increase from the climatology. This change is primarily a result of more TCs forming over the eastern Philippine Sea. On the other hand, TC passage numbers slightly decrease over the South China Sea. These changes in TC activity are predominant in August and are consistent with changes in low‐level vorticity over the subtropical WNP. The influence of SH circulation variability on large‐scale environments and tropical convection in the subtropical NH suggest a possible usage of AAO variation for long‐range forecasting of TC activity over the WNP.