Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basin

Abstract

The increased seasonal demand for water puts pressure on Mediterranean water resources, which are often exploited in a non-renewable way. Besides, climate change can alter hydroclimatic patterns and exaggerate freshwater stress. Flexible operation of existing water reservoirs is one of the most cost-effective ways to mitigate water-related stress by storing water when it is abundant and releasing it when droughts persist. In this context, hydroclimatic forecasts can be central in properly informing reservoir operation. Nevertheless, the link between forecast skill and forecast value is neither easily predictable nor necessarily positive. Each system requires specific forecasts according to its characteristics, and the skill of existing forecast systems does not necessarily translate into a significant gain in system performance. In this work, we develop downscaled seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow for the Faneromeni irrigation dam on Crete island. We then quantify the value of these seasonal forecasts in informing the reservoir operations. While the current operation of this reservoir is based on the available storage at the beginning of the irrigation season, we investigate alternatives by using the Evolutionary Multi Objectives Direct Policy Search method, which allows the design of flexible rules to cope with the variability of the hydrologic conditions as well as to include forecast information for conditioning operational decisions. Under historical climate conditions, results demonstrate a notable enhancement in performance solely by implementing more flexible operating policies. Incorporating perfect forecasts results in an additional improvement of 4% on average throughout the period from 1993 to 2019. However, when using actual forecasts, this gain diminishes to 1%. These outcomes support the exploration of potential trade-off solutions that effectively balance the competing demands within the region.