CIFA: A roadmap for services to monitor weather extremes affecting agriculture under a changing climate

Abstract

Seasonal climate variability is a major source of crop production risk. The expected increase in climate variability and frequency of extreme events in the coming years and decades due to climate change will bring additional challenges for most commodities and geographies. In recent years, climatic anomalies and extreme weather events have impacted the major global breadbaskets. In many instances, the impact of these events could be unanticipated until a later time during the growing season or even until harvest, challenging existing crop yield forecasting programs and posing a significant threat to global food security. The Climate Information for Agriculture (CIFA) system was developed to identify, measure, and monitor the occurrence of climate anomalies and extreme weather events with the potential to affect crop production during the growing season in the continental USA. CIFA provides near real-time information during the growing season and facilitates the detection of compounded events, thus resulting in more informed decisions by stakeholders. Its capability to alert for the occurrence of extreme weather events was demonstrated in 2019, when a historical delay in planting activities impeded over 7 million hectares intended to be planted across the major U.S. cropping areas and again in 2020, when several abnormal events occurred in areas affected by unusual dryness and above-average temperatures in the U.S. Corn-Belt. CIFA not only contributes to enhancing crop forecasting systems but also serves as a valuable resource for academics and experts providing more reliable and accurate data for developing effective adaptation strategies.