Seasonal fluctuation characteristics and determinants of tourist flows of Mount Tianmu scenic area

Abstract

Seasonal fluctuation is one of the challenges for the management of forest scenic areas. To understand the seasonal fluctuation characteristics and determinants of the tourist flows in Mount Tianmu, guide the effective monitoring of tourists flows, guarantee quality of visitors experience, and adopt promotion measures for narrowing the season difference, the research examined the annual tourists data of Mount Tianmu between 1997－2013 and the monthly tourists data between 2005－2013, with Gini index, seasonal index, TRAMO/SEATS method and HP filter, to study the tourist flow characteristics and cause mechanism of seasonal fluctuations of the forest scenic area. The results were as follows: （1） Affected by the institutional reform on the operation and management, the evolution of annual tourist flows of Mount Tianmu could be basically divided in two stages, the early development stage （1997－2004） and the rapid growth phase （after the enterprise franchise in 2005）. Influenced by the two crises happened in 1998 and 2003, the tourist flows in these two years hit a record low. （2） The annual fluctuations of the tourist flows were characterized by three peaks and three troughs, with an uneven seasonal distribution. Seasonal differences were significant, summer being the busy season and winter the low season. （3） Weather conditions, public holidays system, tourists travelling habits were all important determinants of seasonal fluctuations of Mount Tianmu tourists flows. Whats more, the development stages of scenic areas and the ticket prices would affect the annual fluctuations of the tourist flows. Based on the fact that the weather conditions were the leading factor of fluctuations of tourist flows of forest scenic areas and the seasonal differences would be constant, the paper proposed that Mount Tianmu should not only ally with other scenic areas to form a large scale tourism industrial cluster to reduce the seasonal risks, but also enhance the features of natural resources of Mount Tianmu to develop a multi-drive tourism growth mechanism and promote sustainable development of forest scenic area.［Ch, 4 fig. 3 tab. 38 ref.］