Seasonal Electrical Load Forecasting Using Machine Learning Techniques and Meteorological Variables

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of seasonal power consumption is crucial for effective grid management, especially with increasing energy demand and renewable energy integration. Weather patterns significantly influence energy usage, making load prediction a challenging task. This study employs machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and Decision Tree (DT) models, to forecast electricity consumption using meteorological variables such as solar irradiance, humidity, and ambient temperature. The impact of weather elements on load prediction accuracy across different seasons is explored using seasonal forecasting techniques. The results demonstrate the superior performance of ANN and RF models in forecasting summer and winter loads compared to the rainy season. This discrepancy is attributed to the abundance of data for the summer and winter seasons, and the ability of the models to capture complex patterns within the data for these particular seasons. The study highlights the potential of machine learning techniques, particularly ANN and RF, in conjunction with meteorological data analysis, for enhancing the accuracy of seasonal electrical load forecasting. This can contribute to more effective power grid management and support the transition towards a more sustainable energy landscape. The findings underscore the importance of data quality, quantity, and appropriate model selection for different seasonal conditions.