Seasonal Dependence and Variability of Rainfall Extremes in a Tropical River Basin, South Asia

Abstract

In recent years, rainfall extremes have increased significantly and have threatened the socio-economic development in Sri Lanka. This study investigates the rainfall extremes in the Mahaweli River Basin (MRB) of Sri Lanka with daily station datasets from 1985 to 2015. The extreme rainfall indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI) have been used in this study. Results showed a strong seasonal variation of rainfall extreme events over the MRB and a significant interdecadal change of extreme rainfall indices between 1985–1999 and 2000–2015 in the wet region of MRB, which is coherent with the decadal shift of southwest monsoon (SWM) rainfall from wet to dry situations since the year 2000. Based on the General Extreme Value distributions, the long-term mean of SWM rainfall in the wet region (814 mm) moved leftward for the 2000–2015 period (704 mm) and rightward for the 1985–2000 period, suggesting that SWM rainfall is decreased in the late period. The observed above-average (below-average) rainfall and associated rainfall extremes during the SWM can be ascribed to strengthening (weakening) moisture flux from the Arabian Sea direction and strong (weak) convergence over the study domain. The results further identified the negative correlation between Dipole Mode Index and SWM rainfall and associated rainfall extremes in the wet region, signifying that the negative Indian Ocean Dipole phase can enhance the SWM rainfall over the MRB. The negative correlation between Nino3.4 and SWM rain and extreme indices suggested that high probability of wet rainfall extremes in the La Nina phase. The findings of this study can be used to understand precipitation extremes in the context of climate change at the river basin scale and benefit policymakers in building local adaptation strategies in response to long-term climate change.