Seasonal and Time-Series Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents

Abstract

Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs) contribute a significant and escalating rate in harm, hospitalization, and mortality. This study assesses the seasonal trend and time series analysis of RTAs cases brought to casualty department of Liaquat University Hospital, Hyderabad, Pakistan. Objective: To conduct seasonal and time series analysis of RTA cases at Casualty Department of Liaquat University Hospital Hyderabad. Methods: Nine hundred and sixty-six road traffic accidents-related cases were examined through prospective study at casualty department, Liaquat University Hospital, Hyderabad, Pakistan from January 2020 to December 2022. The seasonal trend was demonstrated by drawing seasonal index plot and time series plot. Results: The largest occurrences of RTA-related cases were reported in the month of December, having 103 total cases with a mean of 34.33 ± 18.92. July had the second highest frequency of RTAs-related cases, with a total of 94 cases having a mean of 31 ± 5.43 cases. The second-highest number of cases was observed in July and November with approximately equal mean number of RTAs. The time series analysis demonstrated an increasing trend of RTAs-related cases in the last three months of the year. Conclusions: The number of cases connected to RTAs increased during seasons of extreme weather, such as the summer and winter, and it also showed an increasing tendency in the last quarter of 2022.