Searching for thresholds in climate–radial growth relationships of Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir, Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada

Abstract

The relationship between monthly climate predictors and radial growth of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmanni Parry) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt) were explored using both a standard dendroclimatological approach and a multiple adaptive regressions splines (MARS) framework. Consistent with previous research, the radial growth of fir and spruce was related to temperature variables over the time period of the instrumental record. We identify important temporal instability in the statistical relationships between climate variables and the radial growth of both subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce. Using a 30-year running window, only four of the climate variables related to the radial growth of either spruce or fir did not show a switch in the sign of the correlation. A multiple adaptive regressions spline method was then used to gain insight into thresholds that may relate to radial growth–climate instabilities. Using MARS, we were able to identify knots and non-monotonic relationships between radial growth and climate predictors that may be indicators of ecological thresholds. This combination of dendroclimatic methods provides valuable insight into the complex nonlinear responses that both subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce have been growing under in the past centuries.