Abstract
Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. While extreme summer surface air temperatures are thought to be a risk factor for IHD, it is unclear whether large-scale climate patterns also influence this risk. This multi-national population-based study investigated the association between summer Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability and annual acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or IHD event rates among older adults residing in North America and the United Kingdom. Overall, a shift from cool to warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was associated with reduced AMI admissions in western Canada (adjusted rate ratio [RR] 0.89; 95% CI, 0.80–0.99), where this climate pattern predominatly forces below-normal cloud cover and precipitation during summertime, and increased AMI deaths in western United States (RR 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04–1.15), where it forces increased cloud cover and precipitation. Whereas, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during a strong positive phase was associated with reduced AMI admissions in eastern Canada (RR 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87–0.98) and increased IHD mortality during summer months in the United Kingdom (RR 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03–1.14). These findings suggest that SST variability can be used to predict changes in cardiovascular event rates in regions that are susceptible.
Highlights
Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide
Our findings suggest that sea surface temperature (SST) variability may have important consequences on the incidence and survival following IHD among older populations
Anthropogenic climate change expected over the coming decades, may have dire consequences for IHD risk among older adults living in North America and the United Kingdom
Summary
While extreme summer surface air temperatures are thought to be a risk factor for IHD, it is unclear whether large-scale climate patterns influence this risk This multi-national population-based study investigated the association between summer Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability and annual acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or IHD event rates among older adults residing in North America and the United Kingdom. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during a strong positive phase was associated with reduced AMI admissions in eastern Canada (RR 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87–0.98) and increased IHD mortality during summer months in the United Kingdom (RR 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03–1.14) These findings suggest that SST variability can be used to predict changes in cardiovascular event rates in regions that are susceptible. We focused on the ENSO and AMO resulting from Pacific and Atlantic SST variability, respectively, during summertime since the initiation of an ENSO event typically begins in boreal spring/summer[26] and AMO has strong climatological impact over western Europe during s ummer[23]
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