Abstract
As a result of climate change, many lands are under risk due to the rising sea levels (RSL). Studies show that the mean sea level will likely rise by 0.16 to 0.63 metres before 2050, and 0.2 to 2.5 metres by 2100. Lower-lying islands are more endangered from RSL. One of such islands is Failaka, a small island in Kuwait lying at the entrance of Kuwait Bay, which is located on the north-western side of the Arabian Gulf (Also called the Persian Gulf). Most of Failaka Island is lower than three meters. The Governmental plans are to develop and populate the island. SLR should be considered in such planning. This study focuses particularly on detecting the areas of Failaka Island which are under high threat from the SLR. To detect these areas, spatial analysis of the Digital elevation model (DEM) are used. DEM is estimated for three SLR scenarios (1, 2 and 3 metres). It is expected that 31% of the island will be under sea level height for the SLR of 1 m; 54% for the SLR of 2 metres; and 87% for the SLR of 3 m. Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is estimated as well. The CVI shows that the eastern coast is the most susceptible with regard to the SLR. The model was validated through using ground elevation points (n = 40), and a positive correlation was found with of 0.8019. Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote sensing (RS) are confirmed to be effective tools for estimating spatial influence of the SLR.
Highlights
Scientists continue to confirm that the global sea level change is entirely related to climate change
The current study aims to detect the areas of Failaka Island which are under threat from SLR through spatial analysis of Digital elevation model (DEM) and Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) using six physical parameters
Two slightly elevated areas will remain above the mean sea level: (i) the first is in the middle of the island, while (ii) the second is at the south-western area of the island- close to the destroyed urban region
Summary
Scientists continue to confirm that the global sea level change is entirely related to climate change. The increased temperatures on the planet surface lead to thermal expansion in ocean waters, which further contributes to the rise in global sea levels (Titus, 1990). A. Church and White, 2006; 2011), to about 0.4 to 3.2mm per year The Arabian Gulf was exposed to sea level change during the geological timescale (Albanai, 2017). Studies estimate that the current flooding of the Arabian Gulf basin started 10,000 – 15,000 years ago (Holocene) (El-Enin, 1989). In the north-western part on the Arabian Gulf, Alothman, Bos, Fernandes, and Ayhan (2014) have estimated that the absolute sea level rise is 0.8-1.5 mm/year using all the available tide gauge data during 29 years study (1979 – 2007). The results are consistent with global SLR estimate of 0.1-1.9 mm/year A. Church and White, 2011) for the same studied period
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