Abstract
The general objective of this article is to present the methodological approach for the assessment of the inundation risks associated with the rise in the mean sea level for different models and scenarios of climatic change (IPCC, 2013 and Jevrejeva et al., 2012). The approach focuses on the assessment of the hazard, exposure and physical vulnerability of the built areas, especially the residential areas along the Mediterranean coast of Andalusia (Spain). For hazards calculation a set of tide gauges’ data and climatic scenarios were analyzed to obtain future sea levels for all the spectrum of probabilities. Further, a method is proposed for mapping the probability associated with each scenario using a 5 m cell size DTM. For exposure and vulnerability assessment of built up areas, especially for residential ones, the National Cadastre, which is the most detailed set of data, have been used. Modeling the original cadastral data in a spatial database management system and their analysis through SQL sentences have made possible to identify the cadastral parcels with residential use and associated variables (area, number of residential real estate units, constructed area below ground, etc..), being therefore the cadastral parcel the spatial reference unit for mapping. The overlay of cadastral parcels and the inundation hazard maps has allowed identifying the residential cadastral parcels exposed to each climatic scenario. A method is proposed for better identification of the number of real estate units in each cadastral parcel, assuming this number as the base for residential parcel vulnerability. Finally, the risk assessment is calculated as the product of the previous variables. For the dissemination of the inundation risk assessment results, a web application (geoviewer) was developed. Results show that for the more pessimistic scenario more than 24,000 exposed cadastral parcels would be affected. Out of that, 13,000 exposed residential cadastral parcels were identified and their hazards, exposure and vulnerability calculated in order to map the final inundation risk associated with future sea levels.
Highlights
Global sea level has risen since the late 19th century around 12-18 cm
The scale of detail used for the calculations and assessment of all the components of the risk of mean sea level rise inundation over the built up areas, as well as the extension of the study area (600 km long), made the use of synthetic cartography complex and many times unfeasible
The proposed methodology for the assessment of hazard, exposure and vulnerability of sea level inundation risks is considered adequate given the objectives set out in this work. It coincides with the methodology suggested by many international (UNISDR, 2004; IPCC, 2014; Wright, 2015; World Bank, 2016) and national (Kersting, 2016) organizations
Summary
Global sea level has risen since the late 19th century around 12-18 cm. An acceleration in its trend has been detected by tide gauges and altimetry satellites during the recent decades. For the last two decades, several forecast of SLR have been made, showing the upward expectations based on different emission scenarios. The so-called semi-empirical models estimate that SLR might reach up to 2 m by the year 2100 (Rahmstorf, 2007; Pfeffer et al, 2008; Rahmstorf, 2010) The difference between both types of models lies on the apparently inadequate modeling of the melting process of Greenland (Gardner et al, 2013; Rignot, et al, 2011; Shepherd and Wingham, 2007)
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