Scrappage and survival rates of passenger cars and light trucks in the U.S., 1966–1977

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In recent years sales of light trucks have increased dramatically raising their market share of new light duty vehicle sales from 12% in 1967 to 24% in 1978. Because light trucks are typically less fuel efficient than automobiles and because they have longer lifetimes, there is concern about the long run impact of this trend on the fuel efficiency of the light duty vehicle population. This paper investigates the scrappage patterns of imported and domestic automobiles and light duty trucks over the period 1966–1977. Estimated scrappage functions for the three vehicle types differ significantly, the most striking difference being the longer lifetimes of light trucks as compared to passenger cars (median lifetimes were 14.5 and 9.9 years respectively). A comparison of pre and post 1973 time periods does not alter this conclusion. The long run effect of this is likely to be a vehicle population share about 5 percentage points higher than the light truck market share of new vehicles and a 3% reduction in overall fleet fuel economy.