Scénáře budoucích změn nebezpečných sdružených událostí ve střední Evropě

Abstract

Many recent high-impact weather and climate events developed due to several concurrent climatic drivers amplifying their negative impacts on society and environment. In this paper, we analyse scenarios of future changes in cold–windy and dry–hot compound events in Central Europe, using an ensemble of CORDEX regional climate models forced by two possible greenhouse gas concentration pathways (low-emission RCP4.5 and high-emission RCP8.5). A distinct decrease of compound cold–windy days was found. At the end of the 21st century, the frequency of these days is projected to decrease by 64% (86%) under the RCP4.5 (8.5) pathway (against the 1970–2000 period). By contrast, climate models simulate longer of dry–hot seasons over Central Europe. In mid-21st century, their median length is projected to increase by 5–20 days regardless of the concentration pathway. At the end of the 21st century, dry–hot seasons are projected to become longer by as much as a whole month under RCP8.5. Although model simulations are to some extent uncertain, scenarios of possible future changes in compound events can be useful in adaptation to ongoing climate change.