School building-stock climate resilience: evaluating London’s school stock overheating performance

Abstract

ABSTRACT Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) in classrooms is crucial for students’ health, wellbeing, and academic success. Rising outdoor temperatures due to climate change pose a significant risk – overheating in schools can negatively affect cognitive performance and health for both students and staff.This study examines the risk of overheating in primary and secondary schools in London, focusing on the impact of current and future climate scenarios. Using the UK Department for Education’s Building Bulletin 101 (BB101) as a framework, the study integrates data from various sources, including GIS form data and a national school survey, to develop a ‘one-by-one’ school stock thermal model called the Modelling Platform for Schools (MPS). This model, built using EnergyPlus, allows for the analysis of school thermal performance at national, regional, and individual levels.The results show that by the 2050s, under a medium emissions scenario, average summer temperatures in schools could reach nearly 30°C – 7% higher than current levels. The study also developed an overheating-risk regression model for London schools and explored potential mitigation strategies, such as extending summer holidays or adjusting school activities to times when overheating risk is lower.