Scheduling Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistic Method on a Building Construction Project

Abstract

In the construction of an office building in Indonesia, a delay occurred in the first-floor concrete work. The project was planned to be completed in 161 days but it took 168 days to complete. This study analyzed the issues that arose by doing a scheduling analysis and by comparing the Monte Carlo Simulation and the Statistic method. A comparison between these methods was carried out to determine the project duration scheduling probability level from each method. The data included in the study were the project’s Time Schedule and the interview data from respondents who were directly related to the office building construction project. Monte Carlo Simulation analysis showed that to get a 100% probability level, the duration can only be accelerated by two days, from 168 days to 166 days, while the Statistical method analysis showed that to get a 99.99% probability level the duration can only be accelerated by 4,2 days, from 168 days to 163.8 days. From the results above, it can be concluded that the Monte Carlo Simulation has a more accurate calculation than the Statistic Method because the result from the Monte Carlo Simulation was 166 days with a 100% probability level. It is close to the project realization duration which was 168 days.
 Keywords: construction delay analysis, monte carlo simulation, statistic method comparison